St. George, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

157
FXUS65 KSLC 060954
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
354 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature
through late week bringing warm and mainly dry conditions.
Temperatures will trend a bit warmer each day through Thursday,
remaining well above normal for early October.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)...High pressure continues to build
over the area this morning, although a very weak disturbance is
noted cutting into the ridge. This disturbance is helping to draw
some midlevel moisture into the area, as some midlevel clouds exist
central NV currently. Some CAMs are hinting at very isolated, high-
based showers over portions of southern through west-central Utah
this afternoon. These will produce very little to no precipitation,
although can not rule out some gusty and erratic outflow winds.
Otherwise, a subtle warmup in the already above normal temperatures
is expected for today. Smoke from the Yellow Lake fire will likely
be an issue again for the Uinta Basin. However, lighter winds today
may aid in decreased fire activity.

Moisture continues to increase tomorrow with HREF ensemble mean
PWATs rising to between 0.4-0.6 inches across much of the area. This
will bring increased coverage of high-based showers to the area, and
all CAMs are showing modest simulated reflectivities over most
mountain areas. Ensemble mean SBCAPE values remain very low,
although ensemble maxes reach 100-250 J/kg. Have raised chances of
showers to 10-20% over the mountains, but thunderstorm chances
remain minimal.


.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday)...The start of the period
will feature a ridge of pressure over the eastern Great Basin, with
the ridge axis sliding slowly slowly eastward as a trough of low
pressure drops into southern California.  This pattern will
facilitate a southerly flow with increasing moisture in the mid- to
upper-levels.  While mean CAPE values remain modest at best,
generally below 200 J/kg, moisture combined with divergent flow
should lead to isolated convection on Tuesday, primarily across
higher terrain.  Given dry air in the lower levels of the
atmosphere, the potential will exist for dry microburst winds.

With ridge amplification and a dry southwest flow aloft, Wednesday
and Thursday will be dry and warm, with high temperature expected to
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

A potential pattern change is in store for late Friday through the
weekend, though a tremendous amount of spread in ensemble solutions
indicates low confidence in any given scenario.  Roughly 35 percent
of members indicate a broad trough of low pressure sweeping through
the Great Basin on Saturday, with 30 percent indicating a much
shallower trough moving through region.  Other ensemble solutions
indicate a flat ridge of high pressure over the region with a trough
remaining off the Pacific Coast.  The Deeper trough scenario would
suggest the potential for stronger winds and potentially critical
fire weather conditions on Friday, though relative humidities look
marginal, especially across northern Utah.  At this time, none of
the scenarios indicate any significant precipitation.  High
temperatures should be at or below normal by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period.  Light southeast drainage winds will transition to northwest
winds around 18Z, then back to southeast drainage winds around 03Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period, with the exception of over northeast Utah,
where wildfire smoke will reduce visibilities.  Winds will be
generally light and terrain driven, except over northeast Utah and
extreme southwest Wyoming, where a moderate west to northwest flow
aloft will mix down to the surface this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will be in place over Utah through at
least the middle of the week, maintaining warm and generally dry
conditions. Midlevel moisture will gradually spread into the area
through Tuesday. Very isolated high-based showers producing very
little or no precipitation will be possible across southern through
west-central Utah today. Cannot rule out briefly erratic and gusty
winds underneath some of the showers. These showers will spread
northward tomorrow while gradually increasing in coverage through
Tuesday. Towards the end of the week, increasing southwesterly flow
becomes more likely as the high pressure shifts east. These winds
will have the potential of bringing critical fire weather conditions
to localized areas where humidities are low enough, although
currently, forecast minimum relative humidities for many areas are
above the 15% threshold.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$

Cheng/Barjenbruch

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity